Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Aryna Sabalenka has a slightly lower second serve point win percentage (40.50%) than Liudmila Samsonova (43.57%). Does this give Samsonova an edge? Potentially, but Sabalenka compensates in other areas.
• On returning opponent's second serve points, Samsonova has a marginal advantage (49.08%) over Sabalenka (48.37%). How does this affect the match outcome? It slightly favors Samsonova.
• In saving breakpoints, both players perform similarly under pressure, with Samsonova saving 53.77% and Sabalenka saving 52.92%. This indicates a closely matched capability to defend.
• Sabalenka has a significantly stronger overall win record over the past year (84.00%) compared to Samsonova (58.00%), suggesting consistent performance at a higher level.
• On hard courts, Sabalenka's win rate (74%) aligns with a surface advantage, while Samsonova excels more on grass.
• Sabalenka’s experience at the Masters series, with an 81.58% win rate, shows she consistently competes and wins at higher-level events compared to Samsonova's 60.00% on the Main tour.
• In direct head-to-head matches, Sabalenka has won 3 out of the 5 encounters and 8 out of 12 sets against Samsonova, showcasing a historical edge.
• The last meeting on a hard surface saw Sabalenka winning comfortably, which can influence her confidence going into similar conditions.
• Sabalenka’s matches are typically against higher-ranked opponents (average rank 48.35) versus Samsonova (average rank 57.12), indicating Sabalenka's greater experience facing tougher competition.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Sabalenka is more likely to prevail, having won 68% of such sets compared to Samsonova’s 47%.

Editorial Prediction (October 9, 2025, UTC):

Current performance metrics suggest Aryna Sabalenka may have a slight disadvantage on second serve points but excels in first serve returns. In terms of overall competitiveness and match win consistency, Sabalenka holds a clear advantage with a stronger recent win record.

Given Sabalenka's success rate in deciding sets and her previous victories against Samsonova, she appears to demonstrate better resilience in pressure situations. This, coupled with her experience on hard courts, tips the balance in her favor.

The blend of Sabalenka's historical head-to-head advantage and her performance against higher-ranked opponents suggests she is the more likely candidate to come out victorious in this upcoming match. Based on the available data and recent trends, Aryna Sabalenka is predicted to win this encounter.